← CoreTCG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at CoreTCG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
decks
11
(14.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
67
29-28-10
overall winrate
50.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.0%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
48.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1313
· median 1294
· range 1171–1516
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1171
Q3 1339
1562
36% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
9% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.0% | 12 | 2-10-0 | 16.7% | 25.0% | 22.9% | -11.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.7% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 52.2% | +1.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 39.8% | -5.8 |
| Wind Exia | 5.3% | 6 | 3-0-3 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 61.7% | +6.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 58.5% | +4.9 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 65.5% | +11.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.1% | +2.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.7% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 57.2% | +4.1 |
| Fire Byakko | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +23.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +23.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Exia | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Slimes | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Water Allies | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | -5.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Song of Frost, Water Resonance Bauble, Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa. Losers more often ran: Snow Fairy, Extricating Touch, Coronation Ceremony.
Song of Frost
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Banned
Lost in Thought
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Snow Fairy
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Extricating Touch
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Coronation Ceremony
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Chill to the Bone
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rescue the Heir | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bubble Mage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coriolis Ward | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Freeze Stiff | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Taiji of Crystal Strategems | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |